Don’t Believe the Doubters: Young Workers Still Benefit from a College Degree

Periodically, the media remind us that no level of preparation provides a total guarantee of easy entry into the workforce. The latest reminder comes courtesy of the Washington Post: “New college grads are more likely to be unemployed in today’s job market.” This headline joins others that call into question the value of a college degree, adding fuel to the firestorm of claims that college isn’t worth the time or financial investment.

Those claims, however well-intended, are generally based on partial truths. Take the Post headline as an example: it’s true that recent college graduates (ages 22–27) are currently more likely to be unemployed than the general population of workers (ages 16–65) — a potentially concerning reversal of fortunes, since recent graduates usually have lower unemployment rates than workers at large. At the same time, however — as I pointed out in a recent letter to the editor — a more telling comparison is how much less likely young adults are to experience unemployment if they have a college degree versus if they do not.

Consider these facts: among recent college graduates ages 22–27, the unemployment rate is 4.4 percent, well below the rate for all young adults in this age group (6.5 percent). Both rates rose between May 2023 and September 2023. What stayed fairly consistent, though, was the employment advantage that young adults with a college degree have over their same-age peers without a degree — and the advantage that workers of all ages with a degree likewise have over those without a degree (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Adults with a college degree consistently have lower unemployment rates than those without a college degree.

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Basic Monthly, 1990–2023.

The story these numbers tell is one of persistent employment advantages for workers with a college degree. Granted, statistics may be cold comfort for young graduates struggling to gain a foothold in their chosen fields. Assurances that unemployment rates are especially low for college graduates are more salt than salve for the wound if you’re one of the relatively few experiencing unemployment, or if you’re working outside of the field you hoped to enter, even temporarily. It’s not uncommon for recent college graduates to take some time to find their footing in the labor market.

Nonetheless, recent graduates should take heart in the fact that the financial benefits associated with having a college degree generally increase with time, as college graduates’ wages rise with their work experience and their education debt (ideally) decreases (though there are exceptions, as discussed below). The nonmonetary benefits of college are also substantial; postsecondary education is associated with a range of positive outcomes, from better health and improved civic engagement to stronger critical thinking skills and weaker inclinations toward authoritarianism. Thus, many recent graduates who feel that college isn’t paying off now may feel very differently in the future.

All things considered, the steady drumbeat of claims that college isn’t worth it resembles a well-organized disinformation campaign. In reality, college graduates do better, on average, than those without a college degree. Claiming otherwise risks discouraging college enrollment among the very people who stand to benefit most from a college degree: low-income students, first-generation students, and students from historically marginalized racial and ethnic groups. Yes, it’s possible to do well without a college degree. But those who do are the outliers, not the norm.

None of this is to say that college is without risk. In fact, the chances of non-completion are substantial, with six-year graduation rates for four-year degrees stuck around 60 percent. Completing the degree is essential to avoiding the college debt trap: too many people hold educational debt with no degree to show for it. And major matters, too: workers with a bachelor’s degree in architecture and engineering generally earn a lot more than workers with a bachelor’s degree in education, for example. While bachelor’s degrees that lead to lower earnings are not less valuable to society, college students should take earnings expectations into account when selecting a major and deciding how much to borrow. And they should know that programs at different institutions can lead to substantially different outcomes even for the same major. Postsecondary institutions need to do more to ensure that students are making informed decisions, and they need to provide the resources students need to minimize their personal risk. They need to be more transparent about earnings outcomes by program and major, to substantially improve career counseling, and to support efforts like work-based learning that position their graduates for successful careers.

In the meantime, the media need to stop misleading the public about the value of college degrees. For young people hoping to maximize their chances of high pay and low unemployment, a college degree is the safest bet.

Dr. Carnevale is the director and research professor at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. CEW is a research and policy institute within Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy that studies the links among education, career qualifications, and workforce demands.

Thanks to Kathryn Peltier Campbell and Katherine Hazelrigg for editorial feedback; Fan Zhang for graphic design; and Johnna Guillerman and Maryam Noor for publication support.

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